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Selling Apple shares

It's time to walk away from the stock.  I won't give up my MacBook, but I've given up on the shares.

The company's decision to walk away from MacWorld is, I am afraid, a harbinger of what;'s to come.  I am afraid Apple is becoming a computer company.  Maybe not like Dell, to struggle for several years and forge off in various new directions, but yesterday's New York Times story about Dell is instructive, I think.

Looking to next month's MacWorld Expo, Steve Jobs' no-show robs the company of what could have been New Year's energy, just when it's so necessary.  Without Jobs's "One More Thing" moment, it seems unlikely an attractive, gotta-have-right-now product announcement will be made. So, there goes much hope that 2009 Apple revenues will have any shot at improving.

And for Apple, or any company, to take its ring leader and extraordinary salesman out of the marketing mix and off the stage ... well, is this just an attempt by Jobs to mimic Steve Gates' exit from the wars, or is it a sign of a change in the culture?  I think it's the latter.

My concern is that as Apple has had success in growing market share (some say 10%), it's becoming (yawn!) another computer company.  Small "c".  Without the company's execs, founder, and posse of cheerleaders, next year's MacWorld is liable to be jam packed with geeks and fan boys. The computer that was for the rest of us may see its market share decline and its image morph from 'cool' to 'odd.'

The 'Cult of the Mac' has been dealt a severe blow by Apple's decision to pull out of next month's Expo.

Unless ....  eh? ... Apple's got plans to launch its own events in 2009.

Love my iPhone, but ....

So, last Friday I bought the iPod Touch.  Even as I was walking out of the Best Buy, I knew it was wrong.  Shudda got the iPhone.

Saturday, I did.

Now, my wife will tell you that I can buy some gadget and then leave it un-opened, in the bag even, for more than a week - until I "deserve" to open and play with it.  Some Presbyterian guilt thing, I guess.  Well, not for the iPhone.  Started playing with it last night during the Penn State game (GO PSU!!!).

This morning, added a few Apps.  Cool stuff. Then I tried the camera.   Took a picture of my home office. Oops.  And I'm not alone. 

So, we're going back to the AT&T store.

But I think I still love the iPhone.

What if Steve Jobs ...

... doesn’t appear on stage at “Let’s Rock” Tuesday? 

     Monday’s drop in Apple shares will look like nothing.  Even if Steve does appear, you can bet his every word, every phrase, and every wrinkle will be noticed, worried, and speculated on.

    Last June, there was talk because Jobs looked kind of wan and thin as he announced the 3G iPhone.  The chatter eased after he called The Times’ Joe Nocera and talked off the record. Nocera wrote, “While his health problems amounted to a good deal more than “a common bug,” they weren’t life-threatening and he doesn’t have a recurrence of cancer.”  That was in July.

    Then, a few days ago Fake Steve Jobs’ creator Dan Lyons, fanned the embers.  In e-mail to MacSoda.com, Lyons said, “People close to (Jobs) have been saying ... he’s really sick.”

    I’m just saying that the speculation about Tuesday’s Apple event is missing the elephant in the room.  It’s not whether there’s a slimmer, wide-screen Nano ... or an Apple TV 3.0 that acts like a Tivo.  It’s whether Steve is OK.  And as an ecstatic Mac user, and shareholder who bought last week, now down 11 points, that’s my concern.

    Analyst Gene Munster issued a note this afternoon on this concern.  The Piper Jaffary analyst said he expects Jobs to make the "Let's Rock" presentation. “We are confident that Steve Jobs will be presenting and we anticipate his appearance at the event to be viewed as a positive,” Munster wrote, as repoiryted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt on his Apple 2.0 blog.

Open a bank account, get an iTouch

In Midcoast, Maine, the Key Bank has gone beyond free toasters.  Open  a free checking account, they’ll give you a free Nano.  Open an account with integrated investing services, they’ll give you an iTouch.

Of course there are some catches.  To get the iTouch, you have to leave $25K with the bank ... checking, CD, savings, etc. for about 90 days.  And the bank will report the iTouch as interest income, and sent you a Form 1099-INT for the IRS.

Dona’s been after me to go for this deal, since I’ve been lusting for an iTouch for almost a year.  But I’ve just about decided that I’m going to for the iPhone, probably next month.  My time with AT&T is up and it’s not likely I’m not going to have a phone ... so, it seems the logical thing to do.

Nothing about the bank deal, tho, says you have to live in Maine get get the freebies: https://www.key.com/gen/html/ipod-for-checking.html

When will Apple slash the price of the Touch?

Gotta happen, right? 

With the out-the-door-price of the 8GB iPhone $199, how can Apple expect to do any business with the Touch? 

For more money, you get less with the iTouch. The 8GB model is $299.  That’s a hundred dollars more than the 3G that also does phone calls, albeit for an additional $60/month, or so.  But many buyers are focused on that initial price in the store.

If Apple doesn’t do it, the market will. EBay’s offerings are already showing price erosion for the Touch.  The 8GB is being offered, new, for $232.  The 16GB model, $399 at the Apple Store, is going for $299 on eBay.

So, doesn’t the iPod touch retail store price get cut?  A lot?  Soon?

Did Microsoft make $18 billion on Apple stock?

So, I'm agonizing over whether to ditch my PC and buy a new iMac - and return to the Mac world I left when we launched MarketWatch.

Just about the same time, Microsoft's Bill Gates told a MacWorld conference in Boston his company would buy $150 million worth of Apple stock. 

That would have been a multi-billion dollar smart move.

Apple shares were then selling at $5.43 a share.  They closed Friday at $122.06.  The potential gain on the shares:  $18.1 billion.

By comparison, if Microsoft spent the same money on its owns shares, then selling at $17.67 and closing at $28.25 Friday, the gain would have been (only) $89.8 million. (Click on the graphs for bigger pictures)

In this case, clearly, the adage that entrepreneurs should bet on themselves wouldn't have paid off.  Unless you're Steve Jobs, who just cashed in 120,000 options with a strike price of about $5 - which were set to expire.  Exercise 'em or lose 'em.  Jobs did the right thing, and may have profited about $15 million.

Apple's Trojan Mac virus

Releasing a Windows version of Safari is a savvy uber-marketing move by Steve Jobs. 

With one simple download, Apple gives PC users a hands-on experience in a Mac environment with Apple's design, layout, navigation and user interface. In just a little way, Windows users can now have a Mac inside the box.

This is no small thing when you consider Apple's rising momentum in hardware sales.  Many PC users are being lured by the hype about the Mac and switching is becoming a popular topic among podcasts and blogs.

In putting a PC version of Safari out there, Apple's given potential switchers an easy way to test of life on the other side.

Disclaimer ... I own shares of Apple stock.  Bought 'em at $65. :)